World Trade Organization reports 17/09/2025
Artificial intelligence (AI) could revolutionize the way that international trade data is collected and analyzed, the WTO argues in a paper published today. AI could raise global trade in goods and services by close to 40% by 2040, according to the World Trade Report 2025, along with a corresponding 12–13% rise in global GDP. However, the report also warns that AI could further entrench existing economic inequalities without inclusive policies and investments.
The Bright Future of AI in Trade
The econometric models constructed by the WTO suggest that AI-enabled innovations will lead to a significant reduction in trade costs and improved productivity across several industries. Key areas ripe for transformation include:
- Logistics
- Compliance
- Communication
For example, AI-enabled translation tools might help small producers in low-income countries better compete in global markets. According to the report, if digital infrastructure were improved in these countries, their export growth could increase up to 11%.
Additionally, the use of AI in trade could:
- Expedite customs processes
- Automate complicated trade documents
- Offer real-time data analysis
These improvements would make global supply chains more efficient and transparent.
The Risk of Widening Inequalities
Despite its potential, the WTO cautions that not all may benefit equally from AI in trade. Key concerns include:
- A stark digital infrastructure divide between high-income and lower-income countries.
- Poorer countries could see income growth of only 8%, compared to 14% for richer nations, without proper investment in infrastructure and education.
- Geographical concentration of AI resources, including regulatory frameworks, computational capacity, and manufacturing capabilities, mostly in wealthier nations.
- Today, just a handful of companies, predominantly from high-income economies, account for over 80% of the AI chip market.
To address these gaps, the WTO emphasizes the need for pro-inclusive policies to foster access and capacity building in AI technologies, especially among developing nations.
The WTO’s Moderating Influence on Inclusive AI Adoption
The WTO recognizes its responsibility to support an inclusive global trade environment in the age of AI. Key measures include:
- Facilitating dialogues among members on AI-related trade measures.
- Raising over 80 specific trade concerns regarding AI.
- Advocating for expanded participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement.
- Reformed commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services to make AI more accessible and affordable.
The WTO also highlights the importance of:
- Predictable trade rules
- Reduced tariffs on AI-critical raw materials, such as semiconductors
These steps aim to ensure that all countries benefit from AI advancements.
Policy Proposals for a Fair Integration of AI
To maximize AI’s benefits and mitigate risks, the WTO suggests several policy actions:
- Investing in Digital Infrastructure
Developing nations must invest in digital infrastructure to reduce the technology gap and provide equitable access to AI technologies. - Education and Retraining
Governments should implement education and retraining programs to prepare workers for the skills needed in an AI-powered economy. - Inclusive Trade
Policymakers should craft trade rules that promote inclusive growth, ensuring the benefits of AI are broadly shared across society. - International Cooperation
Countries should collaborate to standardize AI regulations, ensuring ethical, responsible, and consistent AI adoption globally.
Conclusion
The WTO’s World Trade Report 2025 presents a captivating outlook in which AI acts as a driver of trade expansion and economic progress.
However, the report cautions that realizing this potential requires addressing political and economic disparities. Inclusive policies and international cooperation are essential to ensure no country is left behind in accessing AI technologies.
By embracing these strategies, the global community can navigate AI’s challenges and opportunities, paving the way for a fairer and more prosperous future in international trade.
